Online courses need human element




Online courses are proliferating, says Douglas Rushkoff, but will really succeed when they bring humanity to learning process




STORY HIGHLIGHTS


  • Douglas Rushkoff: Education is under threat, but online computer courses are not to blame

  • He says education's value hard to measure; is it for making money or being engaged?

  • He says Massive Open Online Courses lack human exchange with teachers

  • Rushkoff: MOOCs should bring together people to share studies, maintain education's humanity




Editor's note: Douglas Rushkoff writes a regular column for CNN.com. He is a media theorist and the author of "Program or Be Programmed: Ten Commands for a Digital Age" and "Life Inc.: How Corporatism Conquered the World, and How We Can Take It Back." He is also a digital literacy advocate for Codecademy.com. His forthcoming book is "Present Shock: When Everything Happens Now."


(CNN) -- Education is under threat, but the Internet and the growth of Massive Open Online Courses are not to blame.


Like the arts and journalism, whose value may be difficult to measure in dollars, higher education has long been understood as a rather "soft" pursuit. And this has led people to ask fundamental questions it:


What is learning, really? And why does it matter unless, of course, it provides a workplace skill or a license to practice? Is the whole notion of a liberal arts education obsolete or perhaps an overpriced invitation to unemployment?



Douglas Rushkoff

Douglas Rushkoff



The inability to answer these questions lies at the heart of universities' failure to compete with new online educational offerings -- the rapidly proliferating MOOCs -- as well as the failure of most Web-based schools to provide a valid alternative to the traditional four-year college.


Education is about more than acquiring skills.


When America and other industrialized nations created public schools, it was not to make better workers but happier ones. The ability to read, write and think was seen as a human right and a perquisite to good citizenship, or at least the surest way to guarantee compliant servitude from the workers of industrial society. If even the coal miner could spend some of his time off reading, he stood a chance of living a meaningful life. Moreover, his ability to read the newspaper allowed him to understand the issues the day and to vote intelligently.


What we consider basic knowledge has grown to include science, history, the humanities and economics. So, too, has grown the time required to learn it all. While the modern college might have begun as a kind of finishing school, a way for the sons of the elite to become cultured and find one another before beginning their own careers, it eventually became an extension of public school's mandate. We go to college to become smarter and more critical thinkers while also gaining skills we might need for the work force.



Accordingly, we all wanted our sons and daughters to go to college until recently. The more of us who could afford it, the better we felt we were doing as a society. But the price of education has skyrocketed, especially in the tiny segment of elite schools. This has led to the widespread misperception that a good college education is available only to those willing to take on six-figure debt.


Worse, in making the calculation about whether college is "worth it," we tend to measure the cost of a Harvard education against the market value of the skills acquired. Did my kid learn how to use Excel? If not, what was the point?


To the rescue come the MOOCs, which offer specific courses, a la carte, to anyone with a credit card; some even offer courses for free.


Following the model of University of Phoenix, which began offering a variety of "distance learning" in 1989, these newer Web sites offer video lectures and forums to learn just about anything, in most cases for a few hundred dollars a class. MOOCs have exploded in the past few years, enrolling millions of students and sometimes partnering with major universities.








For pure knowledge acquisition, it's hard to argue against such developments, especially in an era that doesn't prioritize enrichment for its own sake. But it would be a mistake to conclude that online courses fulfill the same role in a person's life as a college education, just as it would be an error to equate four years of high school with some online study and a GED exam.


Don't get me wrong: I have always been a fan of online education -- but with a few important caveats.


First off, subjects tend to be conveyed best in what might be considered their native environments. Computers might not be the best place to simulate a live philosophy seminar, but they are terrific places to teach people how to use and program computers.


Second, and just as important, computers should not require the humans using them to become more robotic. I recently read an account from an online lecturer about how -- unlike in a real classroom -- he had to deliver his online video lectures according to a rigid script, where every action was choreographed. To communicate effectively online, he needed to stop thinking and living in the moment. That's not teaching; it's animatronics.


Online learning needs to cater to human users. A real instructor should not simply dump data on a person, as in a scripted video, but engage with students, consider their responses and offer individualized challenges.


The good, living teacher probes the way students think and offers counterexamples that open pathways. With the benefit of a perfect memory of student's past responses, a computer lesson should also be able to identify some of these patterns and offer up novel challenges at the right time. "How might Marx have responded to that suggestion, Joe?"


Finally, education does not happen in isolation.


Whether it's philosophy students arguing in a dorm about what Hegel meant, or fledgling Java programmers inspecting one another's code, people learn best as part of a cohort. The course material is almost secondary to the engagement. We go to college for the people.


Likewise, the best of MOOCs should be able bring together ideal, heterogeneous groupings of students based on their profiles and past performance, and also create ample opportunities for them to engage with one another in the spirit of learning.


Perhaps this spirit of mutual aid is what built the Internet in the first place. Now that this massive collaborative learning project has succeeded, it would be a shame if we used it to take the humanity out of learning altogether.


Follow @CNNOpinion on Twitter.


Join us at Facebook/CNNOpinion.


The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Douglas Rushkoff.






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House passes $50.7 billion Sandy relief bill

FILE - In this Oct. 30, 2012, file photo, a man walks with his dog to a National Guard vehicle after leaving his flooded home at the Metropolitan Trailer Park in Moonachie, N.J., in the wake of Superstorm Sandy. The storm drove New York and New Jersey residents from their homes, destroyed belongings and forced them to find shelter for themselves - and for their pets, said owners, who recounted tales of a dog swimming through flooded streets and extra food left behind for a tarantula no one was willing to take in. (AP Photo/Craig Ruttle, File) / Craig Ruttle

The House of Representatives today passed a $50.7 billion bill to provide funds for Hurricane Sandy relief as well as other natural disasters. The vote was 241 to 180, with 179 Republicans and one Democrat voting no.

The bill will now move to the Senate, where it is expected to be passed by lawmakers after the new session begins on January 22, though it's possible it could be passed by voice vote this week. It is then expected to be quickly signed into law by President Obama.

The package was divided into two parts: A $17 billion bill for immediate recovery from Sandy, and another $33.7 billion amendment for long-term recovery and investment to limit the damage from similar events in the future. The October storm is believed to be responsible for 140 deaths and billions of dollars in damage centered in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. It damaged or destroyed hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses and knocked out transit systems and power grids.

The package provides more than $16 billion for the New York and New Jersey transit systems as well as more $16 billion for Housing and Urban Development funding for recovery from Sandy and other disasters. Other funding goes to the Federal Emergency Management Agency's disaster relief aid fund and to Army Corps of Engineers projects to limit future damage. Funding is also authorized for repairs by the Coast Guard, Federal Highway Administration and Veterans Affairs Department.

Lawmakers from the Northeast criticized southern Republican lawmakers who had sought to reduce the size of the package or require that funding be offset with an across the board cut to discretionary spending. An amendment from Rep. Mick Mulvaney, R-S.C., that would have offset the funding with spending cuts failed 162 yeas to 258 nays earlier in the day, and the Republican-led House Rules Committee blocked efforts to reduce the size of the package.

"We are asking, we are pleading and we shouldn't have to beg for money for the Northeast, to be able to survive this tragedy that hit us," said Rep. Rosa Delauro, D-Conn., who added: "I might remind my colleague from Louisiana that between Rita, Wilma and Katrina, this institution appropriated $133.9 billion in disaster relief."

Critics of the bill derided it as "an excuse for a grab-bag of spending, having nothing to do with emergency relief," in the words of Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Calif.

The Senate passed a $60 billion Sandy relief bill before the end of the last Congress, but House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, declined to schedule a House vote on that measure in the wake of the contentious vote on "fiscal cliff" legislation. That decision prompted harsh criticism from northeastern lawmakers, including Rep. Peter King, R-N.Y., and Gov. Chris Christie, R-N.J., forcing Boehner to hastily schedule today's vote in addition to $9.7 billion in flood relief that was passed Jan. 4.

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Arias Called Ex-Boyfriend 4 Times After Killing Him













Jodi Arias was cornered, wearing an orange jump suit and crying, with her knees pulled up to her chest and her hands shaking, when she came up with one last lie, prosecutors say, to tell police about the killing of her ex-boyfriend.


Intruders came in and murdered Travis Alexander and then threatened to kill Arias and her family, she told police in a 2008 taped interview played at her murder trial today in Arizona.


"He was kneeling down in the shower, I don't remember, I was taking pictures, and I don't really know what happened after that exactly, except I think he was shot," Arias said on the tape, crying and placing her face in her hands, and then rocking back and forth in her chair.


"I was on my knees here and I heard this loud ring, I don't really remember except Travis was screaming," she said.


Arias is on trial and facing the death penalty for the murder of Alexander, 30, whom she has admitted to killing but claims it was in self-defense. Prosecutors allege that she murdered him out of jealousy in a "heinous and depraved" manner.


Detective Esteban Flores of the Mesa, Ariz., police department had spent two days interviewing Arias after she was arrested for the murder of Alexander. He explained the mountain of evidence, including blood samples, hair follicles, and pictures placing her at the scene of the crime.








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After a month of denying that she was at Alexander's home, she finally said she was there, but so were two other individuals. She said she had never confessed it before out of fear for her family's safety.


"They didn't discuss much, they just argued about whether or not to kill me because I'm a witness, of Travis, but I didn't really witness it, I didn't see much," Arias said to Flores.


"You need to make this believable. This doesn't make any sense to me," Flores said.


"They got my license and registration. My parents address was on it," she said.


Arias admitted to killing Alexander in later interviews with police. Prosecutors are seeking the death penalty because of the way they say she killed him, stabbing Alexander 27 times, slashing his throat, and shooting him in the head.


In interviews leading up to her confession, Arias was confident, leaning back in her chair and resting her head in her hands on the table as she calmly told Flores she was not even in Arizona when Alexander was killed.


"There 's no evidence to show that anyone else did this but you," Flores told Arias in the first interview. "I'm not seeing any remorse, anything from you, to make me believe anything otherwise. You can continue to say I didn't do it, but you're the kid who got caught stealing the candy and continue to say it wasn't me. I have the proof. Why won't you admit to it?"


"I didn't kill Travis," Arias said. "I did not take his life."


In the final interview played this afternoon, on the seventh day of her murder trial, Arias appeared quieter and more nervous than previously. She had spent the night in jail after her initial interview, in which Flores told her she would charged and tried for murder.


Earlier in the day, prosecutors presented evidence that Arias tried to cover her tracks after killing Alexander by making a flurry of phone calls to his cell phone and hacking into his voice mailbox, prosecutors alleged today.






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Asian stocks rise after Fed comments






HONG KONG: Asian shares were mostly higher Tuesday after US Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke reassured markets that easing measures were set to stay in place, with Tokyo leading regional bourses higher.

Traders also mulled a warning from US President Barack Obama to Republican rivals not to delay raising the debt ceiling, as the next budget fight took shape in Washington following the battle to avert the "fiscal cliff".

Tokyo put on 1.25 per cent in early trade boosted by the weak yen, which makes exporters' products cheaper, and as dealers hoped for more aggressive easing from the Bank of Japan to lift the world's third-biggest economy.

"The declining yen continues to pull investors off the fence, while earnings expectations from US companies, as well as for a broader global economic rebound, remain relatively firm," said SMBC Nikko Securities general manager of equities Hiroichi Nishi.

Hong Kong was up 0.15 per cent and Shanghai rose 0.39 per cent, adding to strong gains on Monday. Sydney put on 0.16 per cent but Seoul slipped 0.52 per cent.

There was no clear lead from Wall Street, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.14 per cent, but the broad-based S&P 500 falling 0.09 per cent and the Nasdaq Composite shedding 0.26 per cent.

Bernanke indicated on Monday, after Asian markets had closed, that the Fed's latest round of quantitative easing would continue.

He told an audience at the University of Michigan that "while we've made some progress there is still quite a ways to go", in comments reported by Dow Jones Newswires.

His comments were a relief to markets, dealers said, after minutes from the December meeting of Fed policymakers showed they were divided over how long the central bank should continue its $85-billion-a-month bond-buying programme.

In Washington, the next stage of a drawn-out fiscal battle was taking shape as Obama warned Republican lawmakers against using the debt ceiling as a "bargaining chip".

He said a failure to raise the borrowing limit by late February would sow financial chaos and send markets into a tailspin, adding that: "Investors around the world will ask if the United States of America is in fact a safe bet."

Investors are also optimistic ahead of the release of fourth-quarter growth figures for China on Friday, which it is hoped will confirm that the world's number two economy has picked up following a slowdown, analysts said.

On foreign exchange markets, the dollar remained firm against the yen in early Asian trade, at 89.48 yen against 89.45 yen in New York Monday afternoon.

The euro fetched 119.72 yen and $1.3379, slightly up from 119.65 yen and $1.3376 in US trade.

Oil prices fell. New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in February, shed nine cents to $94.05 a barrel and Brent North Sea crude for February delivery dipped nine cents to $111.79.

Gold was at $1,671.86 at 0300 GMT compared with $1,668.39 late Monday.

- AFP/ck



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Clarence Thomas ends seven-year silence









By Bill Mears, CNN Supreme Court Producer


updated 8:17 PM EST, Mon January 14, 2013



















Clarence Thomas


John G. Roberts


Antonin Scalia


Anthony M. Kennedy


Ruth Bader Ginsburg


Stephen G. Breyer


Samuel A. Alito Jr.


Sonia Sotomayor


Elena Kagan








STORY HIGHLIGHTS


  • Clarence Thomas known for remaining quiet during oral arguments

  • On Monday, he joked about lawyers educated at Yale, his alma mater

  • Current Supreme Court known as 'hot bench' for the rhetorical scrum during arguments




Washington (CNN) -- It was just a few words and a joke at that. But Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas broke his seven-year long silence on Monday when he spoke at oral arguments.


He made fun of lawyers from Yale, his law school alma mater.


Thomas has become known for rarely commenting on cases from the bench, another reflection of the complex and often misunderstood personality of the court's only African-American jurist.


On Monday, the justices were hearing an argument about the state of Louisiana's delay in paying for counsel for a death penalty defendant. Should that count against the state for the purposes of the right to a speedy trial?


A lawyer for the state was making the case for the inmate's appointed counsel, saying the woman was "more than qualified" and "very impressive."


"She was graduate of Yale Law School, wasn't she?" said Justice Antonin Scalia in apparent support, noting another member of the legal team went to Harvard.


The next words were hard to hear in the back-and-forth between the justices. But Thomas made a joke about the competence of Yale lawyers when compared to their Harvard colleagues, according to two witnesses.









Independent Business v. Sebelius (2012)
















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Six members of the current high court attended Harvard Law School. Thomas, Samuel Alito and Sonia Sotomayor attend Yale.


Sotomayor describes life journey in new memoir


The official transcript released by the court does not capture the flavor of the colorful exchange. But the lawyer arguing before the court was apparently not pleased.


"I would refute that, Justice Thomas," said Carla Sigler, the assistant district attorney in Lake Charles, Louisiana.


The rest of the time, Thomas kept his own counsel as he is known to do.


"One thing I've demonstrated often in 16 years is you can do this job without asking a single question," he recalled in a speech five years ago.


Written opinions remain the main way the court expresses itself. But the current court is known as a "hot bench" for the busy back-and-forth rhetorical scrum during arguments.


Eight of the justices compete for time to make their questions and views known.


Thomas does occasionally speak from the bench when announcing opinions he has written, but before arguments commence.


Off the bench in friendly audiences, he can be gregarious, inquisitive and often self-reflective. He has a booming voice, and his hearty laugh is easily recognizable.


Some scholars have said Thomas' aversion to talking has reached epic heights.


A study of transcripts by Timothy Johnson of the University of Minnesota found in the past four decades, no justice besides Thomas had failed to speak at least once during an entire 12-month term.


The last time he spoke was February 22, 2006, during a capital appeal.












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Newtown group aims to prevent violent tragedies

Updated 8:01 p.m. ET


NEWTOWN, Conn. Nicole Hockley says she still finds herself reaching for her son's hand or expecting him to crawl into bed with her for a hug before school.

"It's so hard to believe he's gone," said Hockley, whose son Dylan was among the 20 first-graders and six adults killed by a gunman a month ago at Sandy Hook Elementary School.

She was among several parents to speak Monday at the launch of Sandy Hook Promise, a group calling for a national dialogue to help prevent similar tragedies. Parents held photos of their children, spoke in wavering voices, cried and hugged.

"I do not want to be someone sharing my experience and consoling another parent next time. I do not want there to be a next time," Hockley said.

The group did not offer specific remedies, saying it wants to have open-minded discussions about a range of issues, including guns, mental health and safety in schools and other public places. Several speakers said they did not believe there was a single solution.

"We want the Sandy Hook school shootings to be recalled as the turning point where we brought our community and communities across the nation together and set a real course for change," said group co-founder Tom Bittman.




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Victims of Conn. school shooting






36 Photos


Vigils for Conn. school shooting victims



Adam Lanza, 20, shot his way into the school on Dec. 14 and killed 26 before committing suicide as police arrived. He also killed his mother at their Newtown home.

Jeremy Richman, whose daughter Avielle was killed, said a deeper understanding of mental health issues is essential. He and his wife, Jennifer Hensel, started a foundation to explore issues such as risk factors and successful interventions.

David Wheeler, whose son Benjamin was killed, said he and his wife Francine have spent the past month rededicating themselves to being the best parents to their surviving son Nate.


 Ian Hockley and Nicole Hockley, parents of Sandy Hook massacre victim Dylan Hockley (6), embrace during a press conference with fellow parents of victims on the one month anniversary of the Newtown elementary school massacre on January 14, 2013 in Newtown, Connecticut.

Ian Hockley and Nicole Hockley, parents of Sandy Hook massacre victim Dylan Hockley (6), embrace during a press conference with fellow parents of victims on the one month anniversary of the Newtown elementary school massacre on January 14, 2013 in Newtown, Connecticut.


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John Moore/Getty Images

"What we have recently come to realize is that we are not done being the best possible parents we can be for Ben, not by a very long measure," Wheeler said.

Wheeler emphasized the role of parents.

"I would respectfully request that any parent that hears these words simply pause for a moment and think, ask yourself, what is it worth doing to keep your children safe?" Wheeler said.

Many of the parents have also spoken with national leaders about the issue of gun control. Jackie Barden, who's son Daniel was also killed in the school, told CBS News correspondent Seth Doane she spoke to President Barack Obama.

"I actually mentioned that we were going to be adopting a kitten," Barden said. "I am surprised the process I had to go through -- a lot of forms online. And they called me and interviewed me. And then she was calling me to get some information on our family. I don't know enough about guns, but I think it's a little easier to get a gun than to get a kitten."

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Poll: After Newtown, Most Back Some Gun Controls


gty gun store mi 130114 wblog After Newtown Shootings, Most Back Some Gun Controls, Poll Shows

Getty Images


A majority of Americans favor such gun control measures as banning assault weapons and expanding background checks on those who buy guns and ammunition, with support for banning high-capacity ammunition magazines at a new high in ABC News/Washington Post polls.

With Vice President Joe Biden set to present recommendations that were prompted by the Newtown, Conn., school shootings last month, this latest poll shows overwhelming support for certain moves: Eighty-eight percent favor background checks on firearms buyers at gun shows; 76 percent support checks on buyers of ammunition and 71 percent back a new federal database that would track all gun sales.


For full results, charts and tables, CLICK HERE


Sixty-five percent also support banning high-capacity ammunition magazines, a high in three ABC/Post polls to test the idea since early 2011, and up by 6 percentage points since just after the Newtown shootings. Among other suggestions, 58 percent favor banning the sale of so-called assault weapons, 55 percent support the National Rifle Association’s call for armed guards in schools and 51 percent would ban semi-automatic handguns.


Notably, support for the most popular of these measures – expanded background checks, a gun database and banning high-capacity magazines – includes a majority of people who live in gun-owning households, a group that accounts for 44 percent of all adults in this country.


The intensity of support for all these proposals is also notable; “strong” support for each measure outstrips strong opposition, in most cases by overwhelming margins (save the two less-popular items, armed school guards and a semi-automatic handgun ban). For instance, 50 percent “strongly” favor banning assault weapons, twice the number who strongly opposes it. And 76 percent strongly support background checks at gun shows, while only 8 percent say they’re are strongly opposed.


Fifty-five percent in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, express worry about a mass shooting in their own communities, and 52 percent say the Newtown shootings have made them more likely to support some forms of gun control.


As noted, support for banning high-capacity magazines is at a new high in polling since 2011. But there’s no consistent change on other proposals. Support for background checks on gun show buyers is essentially the same as it was in the late 1990s; support for banning assault weapons is numerically up from its low in 2009  but still well below its levels in the mid- to late 1990s; and support for banning semi-automatic handguns has been essentially steady in recent years.


ACTION – Looking ahead to the possibility of legislative action, most Americans give the issue at least a high priority for the president and Congress to address, but not “the highest,” and more give greater priority to  ”addressing gun violence” (68 percent) than specifically “enacting stricter gun control laws” (59 percent).


While they reach majorities, both of these are lower on the list than other top-shelf issues, including the economy, cutting federal spending, restructuring the tax system and slowing the rate of growth in spending on Social Security and Medicare.


The higher priority for “addressing gun violence” versus “enacting stricter gun control laws” (in a split-sample test) likely reflects some compunctions about whether gun control measures will work. The public, for instance, divides on whether stricter gun laws or armed guards in schools would be more effective (43-41 percent), and as many or more blame gun violence on inadequate treatment of the mentally ill, and on irresponsibility among gun owners, as on other causes.


FACTORS – Many factors receive broad blame for gun crimes. Leading the list, more than eight in 10 see inadequate treatment of the mentally ill, inadequate background checks and lack of individual responsibility by gun owners as contributors to gun violence, and more than half, in each case, say these contribute “a great deal” to the problem.


Sixty-nine to 73 percent also see the availability of semi-automatic handguns, high-capacity ammunition clips and assault weapons as contributors – yet as many say the same about the prevalence of violence in TV programs, movies and video games. The fewest numerically, 38 percent, believe violence in the media contributes “a great deal” to gun violence.


There are three items on which more people say the issue contributes to gun violence than favor legislative action: Sixty-nine percent see access to semi-automatic handguns as a contributor, versus 51 percent who favor banning such weapons; 73 percent say assault weapons are a contributor, versus 58 percent who favor banning those; and 70 percent see high-capacity magazines as a factor in gun violence, while slightly fewer, 65 percent, would ban them. The gaps apparently exist at least in part because support for action is lower among those who see these as contributing “somewhat” but not a great deal to gun violence – a group that includes more pro-gun individuals, such as people in gun-owning households, men and political conservatives.


GROUPS – There are striking differences among groups on some, but not all, gun control issues. Support for gun control measures generally is higher among women than men, with the gap peaking on a ban on semi-automatic handguns, supported by 60 percent of women versus 40 percent of men.


In addition to the expected partisan and ideological divisions, support for gun control also is higher in several cases among senior citizens vs. the youngest adults, among city dwellers vs. those in suburbs or rural areas, in Democratic-voting blue states vs. more-Republican red states, and in non-gun households vs. those in which someone owns a firearm. There also are regional divisions, with support for gun control typically highest in the Northeast and lowest in the South.


These differences, however, generally fade on the issues on which agreement is most broad – background checks, a gun database and banning high-capacity magazines.


Patterns are different in support for armed guards in schools; this idea is more popular with conservatives versus liberals (63 versus 44 percent), in red versus blue states (67 versus 49 percent) and among Republicans versus Democrats and independents (65 versus 52 percent). It also gets more support from parents with minor children, 62 percent, versus 51 percent among other adults. In the biggest gap, the proposal for armed school guards is nearly 30 points more popular with people who see the NRA’s leadership favorably than among those who see it unfavorably, 69 versus 40 percent.


There are other differences among groups that inform views on gun control. Women, for instance, are 13 points more apt than men to say the Newtown shootings have made them more likely to support some forms of gun control, and 16 points more likely to be worried that a mass shooting could occur in their own area. That worry is a prime factor in support for stricter gun laws.


THE NRA – While recent polls have found the NRA to be popular overall with a majority of Americans, this survey finds a less positive assessment of the association’s leadership -  more see it unfavorably than favorably by an 8-point margin, 44 versus 36 percent, although many don’t know enough to say.


There’s a mixed result on the NRA’s influence on gun policy; on the one hand more, 38 percent, say it has too much influence versus too little (24 percent) or about the right amount (30 percent). At the same time, that makes a majority, netted, saying its influence is too little or about right.


The NRA’s leadership, naturally, has far more support among people in gun-owning versus non-gun-owning households – a 52 percent versus 22 percent favorable rating. Similarly, 49 percent in non-gun households say the NRA has too much influence over gun laws. In gun households 27 percent, agree.


METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Jan. 10-13, 2013, among a random national sample of 1,001 adults, including landline and cell-phone-only respondents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including design effect. Partisan divisions are 33-24-37 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.


The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y.

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Benefits of emissions cuts kick in only next century









































Are we the altruistic generation? Do we care what happens to our grandchildren, and to their children? Or are we with Groucho Marx when he said: "Why should I care about future generations? What have they ever done for me?"











A new study of climate change lays out in detail why this matters. According to its author, Nigel Arnell of the University of Reading, UK, the unpalatable truth is that even rapid action now to curb greenhouse gas emissions would have only a "negligible effect by 2030, and the benefits in 2050 would remain small". The big dividend – cooler temperatures, fewer floods and droughts and better crop yields, compared to carrying on as we are – would only become clear by about 2100.












Arnell and colleagues used climate models to look at how different policies to curb greenhouse gases would affect temperature, sea levels, crop yields and the incidence of droughts and floods. Two findings emerged. The first is that lags in the climate system mean the real benefits of cutting emissions will only show up late this century. This, says Arnell, underlines that there is a lot of global warming "in the pipeline" that cannot now be prevented.












But the study also shows that tackling climate change early brings big rewards. Arnell compared a policy of letting emissions peak in 2016 and then cutting them by 2 per cent a year with one that delays the peak till 2030 and then cuts by 5 per cent a year. He found that both restricted warming in 2100 to about 2 °C, but the climate disruption over the next century would be much less with the early start. Coastal flooding from sea-level rise in particular would be much reduced. This, he told New Scientist, contradicts a common view that drastic action to curb warming should wait for renewable energy to become cheaper.













"Arnell has shown just how crucial the emissions pathway we take today will be for our children and grandchildren," said Dave Reay, geoscientist at the University of Edinburgh, UK. Bill McGuire of University College London agrees: "It shows taking effective action now is far better than putting it off until later."












It's a shame, then, that even if all goes well with UN negotiations, no global deal to bring down emissions will come into force until at least 2020. Our great-great-grandchildren will be cursing our delay.












Journal reference: Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1793


















































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Fleischer: Hagel is wrong about Israel




Former Sen. Chuck Hagel was nominated by President Obama for defense secretary.




STORY HIGHLIGHTS


  • In 2006, Hagel said 'the Jewish lobby intimidates a lot of people up here'

  • Ari Fleischer: The support for Israel isn't because of 'intimidation,' but merit

  • Polls show most Americans view Israel favorably, but don't support Iran or Palestinians

  • Fleischer: Israel is a steady friend of the U.S. and a tolerant democracy




Editor's note: Ari Fleischer, a CNN contributor, was White House press secretary in the George W. Bush administration from 2001 to 2003 and is the president of Ari Fleischer Sports Communications Inc. He is a paid consultant and board member for the Republican Jewish Coalition, which opposes the Hagel nomination. Follow him on Twitter: @AriFleischer


(CNN) -- "The political reality is ... that the Jewish lobby intimidates a lot of people up here." -- Senator Chuck Hagel, 2006


As a result of those words and his voting record, former Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel's nomination has turned a decades-long, bipartisan confirmation process for secretary of defense into an acrimonious one.


While some leading figures such as the Anti-Defamation League's Abe Foxman and the Simon Wiesenthal Center's Rabbi Abraham Cooper say Hagel's words are borderline anti-Semitism, I'm less worried about anti-Semitism and more worried about the judgment of a potential defense secretary who thinks Israel has won support because of "intimidation," not merit.



Ari Fleischer

Ari Fleischer



Israel is widely supported by the American people because Israel deserves to be supported. Israel is a lonely democratic ally and a steady friend of the United States in a dangerous and tumultuous region. Their people are like the American people -- free, independent, capitalistic and tolerant.


A Gallup poll taken last year showed 71% of the American people view Israel favorably while only 19% view the Palestinian Authority favorably and just 10% view Iran favorably.



In a Pew Research Center study last month, 50% of adults said they sympathize more with Israel in its dispute than with the Palestinians. Just 10% sympathize more with the Palestinians, while about as many (13%) volunteered that they sympathize with neither side.


Contrary to Hagel's logic, Israel doesn't enjoy widespread American support because anyone -- from any faith -- intimidated someone else; Israel earned the support of the American people because of its people's values.


Opinion: Hagel is a friend to Israel


The danger in what Hagel said is if he thinks Israel is supported on Capitol Hill because of intimidation, then it's not hard to see why Hagel is so soft in his support for our ally. He sees himself as an independent voice willing to stand up to intimidation, and he wears his anti-Israel votes as badges of honor.










But Hagel isn't independent. He's alone.


His position on Middle Eastern matters is so outside the mainstream of both parties that almost no one agrees with him.


In 2000, Hagel was one of only four senators who refused to sign a Senate letter in support of Israel.


Peter Beinart: What's behind Hagel nomination fight


The following year Hagel was one of only 11 senators who refused to sign a letter urging President George W. Bush to continue his policy of not meeting with Yasser Arafat until the Palestinian leader took steps to end the violence against Israel.


John Cornyn: Why I can't support Hagel


Contrary to America's longstanding bipartisan position, Hagel has called for direct talks with terrorist organizations Hamas and Hezbollah. In 2007, Hagel voted against labeling the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the group responsible for the death of many American servicemen in Iraq, a terrorist organization.


And in 2008, he was one of two senators on the banking committee to oppose a bill putting sanctions on Iran. One of the measure's biggest backers was an Illinois senator named Barack Obama.


I'm a New Yorker and neither of my senators -- Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand -- supports Israel because someone muscled them into that position through intimidation. They both support Israel because the lobby that wants them to support Israel is an American lobby, made up of people from both parties and all religions and from people with no religion or political party at all.


But if Chuck Hagel believes that it's intimidation and not sound judgment that has caused his colleagues to support Israel, then Chuck Hagel should not be confirmed as our next secretary of defense.


Follow us on Twitter @CNNOpinion


Join us on Facebook/CNNOpinion


The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Ari Fleischer.






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